Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model by NCS
The Demographic Transition Model graphs Birth rate, Death rate and Natural Increase.  The word demographic simply means population, and transition relates to change.  Therefore this model proposes what should happen to a population over time and how it should CHANGE. If birth rate is greater than death rate the population will increase. If the death rate is greater than birth rate the population will naturally decrease. The greater the difference the greater the rate of Natural Increase. The rate of Natural Increase is much higher in developing countries of the world and many countries in MEDCs are actually experiencing population decline. The demographic transition model is set out in 5 stages and was based on the United Kingdom.  These can be seen below:
Major patterns and reasons for those patterns are summarised in the table below.
Stage 1 - High fluctuating Stage 2 population increase Stage 3 Population increase Stage 4 low fluctuating Stage 5 - ageing & decline UK in the past Pre 1780 1780 to 1880 1880 to 1940 Post 1940 2000+ Present examples Ethiopia Bolivia, India China Canada, USA Russia, Germany, Japan Birth rates High due to; 1. Cultural or religious beliefs encouraging large families 2. Lack of contraception 3. Parents have lots of children to compensate for high Infant mortality 4. Children work on the land As stage 1 Start to decline due to; a) Increased access to contraception b) Infant mortality falls so there is less need to have a large family c) Industrialisation and mechanisation means less workers are required. d) Wealth increase and people are more materialistic, so want less children. Stay low because of reasons in stage 3. Are very low and the countries suffer from low fertility. Materialism and the desire for family size massively affect birth rates  Death rates High due to disease, Famine, poor diet and hygiene, little medical science. Start to decrease due to improvements in medical care, sanitation and water supply, supply and cleanliness of food. Continue to fall. developments such as underground sewers, medical developments such as penicillin, surgery such as heart bypasses and inoculations help. Stay low. Rise slightly as ageing people reach the end of their lives